Sunday, April 13, 2008

Polar bears

Polar bears

Have you ever stopped and really thought about drive-in movie theaters? Today, drive-ins are a relic of the past. However, not too long ago they were the only way you could see a new movie. Now what if you think about obesity? America is much more obese than it was in the past. If you consider these two things: the decline of drive-ins and the rise of obesity, it is not such a stretch to think that they could be related. So here is a hypothesis: the rise of obesity is a result of the decline of drive-in movie theaters.

Of course, that is a ridiculous conclusion. There are many trends that have contributed to the rise of obesity in America, but the disappearance of drive-ins is not a reasonable cause. However, every day we are bombarded with statistics and trends that we are told are directly related. Some of those relationships are valid, but others are tenuous at best. A good example is the debate over climate change. The American public was presented with polar bears, which were supposedly dying out while the temperature was increasing. Both of those statistics are true; some polar bears are dying out, and the temperature is rising. However, those statistics are not the whole story. The polar bears that were dying out were only a percentage of the total polar bear population. In fact, the populations of other groups of polar bears were increasing. To further complicate the story, polar bear populations were increasing in areas where the temperature had increased in the past, and the populations decreased in areas where the temperature had been falling. However, don’t make the mistake of assuming that this implies that climate change is not a problem. All this example shows is that in the case of polar bears, climate change is not the problem it has been represented as.

Statistics are a powerful tool. However, it is very easy to read relationships and causations where none exist. When considering statistical data, it is very important that we keep a level head and keep the entire picture in mind; otherwise, we might actually find ourselves blaming all of our problems on drive-ins.

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